Siamo tutti King Kong
Posted by janejacobs su febbraio 22, 2009
Il Giappone ha una popolazione di 127 milioni di abitanti. Recenti studi prevedono che la sua popolazione si ridurra’ a 100 milioni nel 2050 e a 64 milioni nel 2100. Si sono tentate di dare varie spiegazioni al fenomeno della decresita della natalita’ in Giappone: i Giapponesi preferiscono non sposarsi, o non avere figli, o hanno figli quando sono piu’ anziani.
Alcuni sociologi ritengono che i Giapponesi preferiscano investire tutto su di un solo “super bambino”, invece di avere due o piu’ figli che condividano le risorse che potrebbero essere spese solo su di un bambino (giochi, educazione, sport, vacanze).
Questo declino di natalita’ non sta accadendo solo in Giappone, ma anche in America, in Europa e da poco tempo addirittura anche in Africa. Ruth Mace, professoressa di antropologia biologica all’University College di Londra ha affermato che in vari Paesi Africani c’e’ un calo demografico e che questo e’ dovuto essenzialmente al fenomeno dell’urbanizzazione, un fenomeno in cui il Giappone e’ il Paese leader al mondo.
Sara’ un caso dovuto alla geografia montagnosa delle Isole Giapponesi che ha portato il Giappone a concentrarsi sulla costa e nelle citta’. Ma non e’ un caso che la vita cittadina in Giappone sia molto avanzata. Tokyo, ad esempio, ospita piu’ di 30 milioni di cittadini ed e’ la piu’ grande citta’ del Mondo.
Il resto del mondo si sta urbanizzando sempre piu’, seguendo un po’ il modello del Giappone. Piu’ di meta’ dei 6,6 miliardi di abitanti del pianeta vive in citta’ ed entro il 2030 gli abitanti delle citta’ saranno 5 miliardi.
Ma qual’e’ il legame fra urbanizzazione e declino della popolazione? E come puo’ la scienza spiegare un fenomeno che sembra appartenere alla sociologia?
Nella biologia dell’evoluzione e’ ben noto che gli animali con piu’ risorse hanno piu’ discendenti. Quindi e’ difficile spiegare perche’ la fertilita’ dei Giapponesi sia in declino proprio adesso che sono diventati un Paese ricco.
Ma c’e’ una ragione.
Di solito, piu’ grande e’ un anumale, piu’ lenta e’ la sua crescita, piu’ lento e’ il suo metabolismo, piu’ a lungo esso vive e piu’ lentamente si riproduce. Per questo un topo cresce piu’ in fretta di un elefante, ha un metabolismo piu’ veloce, fa piu’ figli e muore prima.
Questa differenza e’ spiegata dalla teoria metabolica dell’ecologia. Gli animali piu’ grandi hanno una rete maggiore di vasi sanguigni che sono usati per trasportare nutrimento alle cellule. Quindi il trasferimento delle risore e’ meno efficiente negli animali piu’ grandi. E non solo nei grandi animali.
Piu’ grande e’ la rete di vasi sanguigni, piu’ inefficiente e’ il trasporto. Una citta’ e’ un sistema di reti e le grandi citta’, di cui Tokyo e’ regina, sono meno efficienti nell’utilizzare risorse.
Gli esseri umani usano circa 8.400 kilojoules di energia al giorno, che equivale a circa 100 watt al giorno. Questa e’ l’energia che usiamo allo stadio naturale, quella che utilizzeremmo se vivessimo ancora come uomini primitivi. Ma naturalmente, vivendo in citta’, le cose sono diverse.
Se si considerano gli usi aggiuntivi di energia, che essenzialmente provengono dal bruciare olio, gas e carbone, allora dobbiamo considerare che noi umani consumiamo circa 11,000 watts al giorno ciascuno.
Secondo Melanie Moses, del dipartimento di informatica dell’Universita’ del New Mexico, ogni essere umano dei paesi avanzati consuma energia sufficiente a sostenere un gorilla di 30.000 chili. Insomma, siamo tutti come King Kong nella foto!
King Kong ovviamente non esiste, ma se esistesse la teoria etabolica dell’ecologia prevede che un simile animale avrebbe meno di due figli a coppia, ed e’ proprio quello che vediamo oggi per gli esseri umani urbanizzati dei paesi avanzati. Siamo tutti King Kong!
Quello che sta avvenendo e’ che gli esseri umani si stanno urbanizzando e stanno “metabolizzando” petrolio, gas e carbone.
Per evolverci in maniera sostenibile e’ necessario che le nostre citta’ si dotino di infrastrutture decentralizzate, di energie rinnovabili dal vento e dal sole invece che dal petrolio. Le citta’ devono essere costruite in modo tale da ridurre i trasporti e le distanze e da migliorare l’efficienza energetica.
Se ci doteremo di tali infrastrutture saremo forse in grado di evitare la nostra estinzione, che e’ stato il triste destino a cui e’ andato incontro King Kong.
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