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Il fallimento dei monetaristi: Fisher e Friedman

Posted by janejacobs su marzo 17, 2008

 

Milton Friedman

Mentre i keynesiani si arrendevano davanti al fenomeno della stagflazione, prendevano piede le teorie dei cosiddetti monetaristi. I monetaristi sono economisti che spiegano l’economia dal lato dell’offerta. La loro teoria si basa sulla teoria della Grande Depressione esposta da Irving Fisher, un professore di economia dell’Università’ di Yale Ma i monetaristi divennero famosi per appartenere alla scuola di Chicago perche’ le teorie di Fisher furono sviluppate da Milton Friedman dell’Universita’ di Chicago che, come Samuelson, ha vinto un Nobel per l’economia.
L’idea di base di Fisher era la stessa esposta da John Stuart Mill quasi cento anni prima. Fisher riteneva che la causa della Grande Depressione era una drastica contrazione del credito, dovuta al panico dei banchieri che temevano – a ragione – che le banche non avevano abbastanza denaro per far fronte ai loro impegni. Fisher attribui’ la paura delle banche al fatto che le banche, in maniera del tutto legale, potevano prestare multipli del loro capitale: multipli delle riserve che detenevano in contanti e titoli del Tesoro Americano. Fisher sostenne che l’unico modo per evitare la Depressione era di espandere il credito ai produttori, e che in futuro si sarebbe dovuto stabilizzare il credito bancario, evitando di farlo fluttuare “selvaggiamente” come era avvenuto negli anni 20. Per raggiungere questo, propose che il governo prendesse piena responsabilita’ per il processo di creazione del denaro, invece di lasciare che fossero le banche a creare il denaro prestando piu’ di quanto potessero.

Secondo Fisher le banche dovevano tenere riserve in linea con i prestiti che elargivano sotto forma di titoli di stato. Da un lato, questo provvedimento impedirebbe alle banche di aumentare il credito al di sopra del volume di moneta deciso dalo stato; dall’altro lato, la sicurezza che le banche avrebbero ottenuto con un tasso di riserve pari al 100 per cento avrebbe reso inutile per loro contrarre il credito ad altre banche, dal momento che questo avrebbe loro creato solo una perdita di profitto senza rischi. Se la domanda di prestiti era bassa, i tassi di interesse piu’ bassi avrebbero automaticamente corretto questo sbilancio; se la domanda di prestiti era alta, le banche avrebbero semplicemente aumentato i loro tassi di interesse. I tassi di interesse, il costo del denaro, avrebbero fluttuato in rapporto alla domanda e all’offerta di credito, ma l’ammontare di credito disponibile non sarebbe variato.

Fisher sosteneva che un governo dovesse assumersi la responsabilita’ di aumentare la quantita’ di moneta in circolazione ad un tasso annuale predeterminato e calcolato per sostenere l’espansione della produzione, ma non piu’ per tenere i prezzi stabili ed evitare l’inflazione. Fisher aveva dati statistici che sostenevano le sue teorie; sie in tempi buoni che in tempi di recessione, il prodotto interno lordo degli Stati Uniti ammontava a tre volte il volume della moneta in circolazione e dei depositi bancari. Dal momento che i depositi bancari fanno capo in un modo o nell’altro ai prestiti bancari, Fisher diceva che i dati da lui riportati provavano che il volume dei prestiti determinava il volume di attivita’ economica, inclusi i tassi di interesse e l’a disoccupazione. Diversamente dalle ricette keynesiane, le ricette di Fisher non venivano adottate ne’ in America ne’ altrove; cio’ nonostante, sotto la guida di Friedman, il monetarismo rimase una forza viva ed intellettualmente forte.

Per molte ragioni tecniche e’ difficile definire che cose sia la “moneta”, e questo problema si aggravato sin dai tempi di Fisher. Per i monetaristi moderni, come per Fisher, moneta significa contavi e assegni usati in transazioni commerciali; ma statisticamente separare questa M1 (come adesso viene chiamata) dai depositi di risparmio e da altre forme di moneta e’ diventata una specialita’ piuttosto arcana. Questa specialita’ e’ di grandissima importanza per i monetaristi perche’ il principale punto della teoria monetarista e’ che vi sia sempre disponibile un ammontare gradualmente crescente di moneta per favorire gradualmente la produzione. Per i monetaristi, quando denaro e prodotto interno lordo crescono allo stesso passo, la domanda e l’offerta si bilanciano e i prezzi rimangono stabili. Per i monetaristi, le iniezioni di denaro sotto forma di spesa pubblica cosi’ come erano stati prescritti da Keynes, erano un’abominio.

Dopo che la stagflazione ha distrutto la credibilita’ dei keynesiani, i governi del Regno Unito, degli Stati Uniti, del Cile e di altri paesi hanno iniziato a farsi consigliare dai monetaristi. I monetaristi erano preparati. Dal momento che la stagflazione era un mostro a due teste, i monetaristi proposero due armi: per attaccare l’inflazione, prescrissero tassi di interesse elevati e tagli della spesa pubblica, particolarmente per quei tagli in supporto della domanda. Per tagliare la disoccupazione, che ritenevano dovuta ad un insufficiente investimento in attivita’ produttive, proposero di ridurre le tasse, con il fine di aumentare i fondi per investimenti produttivi da parte dei privati. Dal momento che una tassazione inferiore avrebbe dovuto stimolare la produttivita’ e l’occupazione, anche con tasse piu’ basse, il governo avrebbe incassato di piu’ per via dell’aumento della produzione; simili risultati venivano dimostrati con le curve di Laffer, degli strumenti simili alle curve di Phillips che suggerivano che queste teorie erano valide.

Quando queste teorie venivano applicate, gli alti tassi di interessi rendevano i prestiti non economici per i produttori e portarono alla bancarotta (o vicino alla bancarotta) molti di essi. Quando invece la produzione si contraeva e la disoccupazione aumentava, l’abbassamento delle tasse non produceva gli effetti sperati e serviva solo ad aumentare il debito pubblico. Insomma, le misure che volevano combattere l’inflazione si traducevano nella rovina dei produttori e dei lavoratori, mentre le misure che volevano aiutare i produttori si trasformavano in un elevato debito pubblico.

 

Alcuni pensavano che i governati delle economie Marxiste avrebbero avuto ragione nel decretare la fine del capitalismo. Ma anche loro non potevano permettersi di cantare vittoria. La stagflazione stava mettendo in ginocchio anche loro. Nei paesi marxisti la stagflazione era nascosta da imprese che assumevano troppi dipendenti rispetto a quelli di cui c’era bisogno, e da sussidi ai prezzi che periodicamente dovevano interrompersi sotto la pressione dell’inflazione. Inoltre, le economie Marxiste erano diventate dipendenti dalle economie Americane, Giapponesi ed Europee per la generazione di capitale, che loro stessi erano incapaci di produrre, capitale che non sarebbero stati mai in grado di ripagare. Continua…

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107 Risposte to “Il fallimento dei monetaristi: Fisher e Friedman”

  1. Giampaolo Vermicelli said

    Penso che le teorie monetariste hanno trovato applicazione soprattutto durante la presidenza Reagan per opera di M Freadman. Negli hanni 80 quando alla Federal Reserve arriva A Grespan viene portata avanti una politica basata su bassi tassi di interesse per favorire l’aumento del credito. Questo ha favorito l’aumento della produzione(leggi aumento degli immobili/abitazioni)a favore anche delle classi meno abbienti ma nello stesso tempo ha favorito la nascita di nuovi prodotti finanziari (leggi derivati) che hanno enormemente sviluppato il mercato finanziario (leggi aumento delle borse) con una conseguente difficoltà di controllo da parte delle stesse istituzioni centrali. Bisognerebbe meglio comprendere perchè il ciclo si è invertito fino alla crisi attuale. In sostanza mi sembrra che il rapporto finanza economia reale si sia invertito. In una azienda è la risi economica (ricavi minori dei costi) che determina la crisi finanziaria sembrereffe al contrario (ma io non lo capisc) che la crisi finanziaria influenzi la realtà economica/reale.

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